Do spring polls matter? Do they tell us who will win the election in November? Umm, not so much …
From Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com
Do spring polls matter? Do they tell us who will win the election in November? Umm, not so much …
From Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com
When Andrew Breitbart suddenly died, political blogs were filled with the news. This makes sense: he was an important figure in contemporary political life.
But, importantly, many if not most of the comments I saw made quick mention of their decision and/or belief that any comments about Breitbart ought to acknowledge that he was a human being with family and friends who deserved to be treated with dignity and respect—despite, the blogs either said or implied, the fact that Breitbart himself treated no one with dignity and respect.
Which, if you think about it, is a hell of a thing. The best thing even Breitbart’s defenders could say about him was that his wife and children loved him. Which is great and all, but really speaks to a profound change in the way our society seems to work.
See, for much of world history one’s legacy mattered. People wanted to be thought of well by the generations that followed. At one extreme, this led conquering monarchs to slaughter untold masses in grabs for glory, or cruel kings to enslave thousands to build monuments to the king’s wonderfulness. (Think the Pyramids of Giza as one obvious example.)
But far more commonly the desire to be remembered well led people to try to lead good lives based on helping their family and/or their community be a better place. This kind of concern for legacy is reflected when a bench in a park gets named for someone who took extra time every day to feed the ducks in cold snaps, or when a school takes the name of an honored graduate. It is why life in the places we live gets better … if it does.
Unfortunately, many of us have lost this sense of living for one’s legacy. All that matters is the now: the most expressive, most profitable, most dramatic presentation of self possible. In a choice between being the quiet person who takes time to clean up litter in the park everyday, or being Snooki, whose only talent seems to be an unashamed willingness to be filmed while behaving badly, many—too many—people take the Snooki way.
This was Andrew Breitbart’s way. He did not care if something was true or not. He did not care if innocent, good people got crushed as he pursued his agenda. All he cared about—at least in his public persona—was advancing his cause.
Now I know that he would say he had to do it: that the left is so vile and so hateful that he had no choice. I know he would say that in such a world “facts” are fungible in the service of “good” as he defines it.
But I don’t buy it. We all have choices. Breitbart chose to pursue a politics that was nasty and mean—not just in the policies he advocated, but also in the ways he pursued them.
Whatever his personal legacy, Andrew Breitbart’s political legacy is having made American politics worse. His is the legacy of a man who, at the end of a significant public life, has to be remembered in spite of what he did, not because of what he did.
Let the rest of us do better.
Shhhh. Hear that? That’s right: you don’t really hear anything. It’s as if the presidential campaign is on hold.
It isn’t, of course. There are elections in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado today. Missouri is having a so-called “beauty contest” that will register voters’ support for a candidate but which will not lead to the selection of any actual delegates to the convention; both Minnesota and Colorado are have what amounts to straw polls before selecting delegates in March.
Notably, Rick Santorum is likely to “win” both Missouri and Minnesota today. Meaning that, regardless of delegate counts, he is likely to end today having won about as many states as Romney has.
And no one cares.
We find ourselves in this absurd situation because of the intersection of two remarkable trends, both of which deserve more comment than they are receiving.
Trend 1 is the Republican Party’s desperate effort to beat back the tide of front-loading that has shaped most recent election contests. More and more states have pushed the dates of their primaries forward, trying to have their citizens have a chance to influence the selection of the party’s nominee. Think about it: lots of people want the race to be over ALREADY, when all of 5 states have voted. To have a voice, states have to schedule their primaries early in the campaign season. So states have been changing their dates earlier and earlier in the campaign cycle.
The Republican Party, by contrast, wants to pace the elections out a bit. So it has decided to sanction those states that schedule primaries before March by not seating delegates elected from early voting states (other than those from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, 1/2 of Florida’s delegates, and Nevada). Sound absurd? It is. But it’s true.
Trend 2 is the media’s insistence that it is the story. CNN, FOX and the other media covering the election seem to believe that they “call” the election—that it’s up to them to decide who wins and who loses the nomination. And right now they have a narrative, an explanation for what is going to happen and why. It’s the “Romney is inevitable” narrative.
So what is the media to do when two of three states holding elections in a given day don’t comply with the “Romney is inevitable” narrative? Well that’s easy:
You (don’t) hear it everywhere.
#Occupy?
A little Christmas; a little electoral politics; a little winter break on various college campuses … it has seemingly disappeared. At least in the media.
We are the least capable multi-taskers in the world: easily distracted by “next,” and easily forgetting that which seemed to be end-of-the-world vital just moments before.
No wonder the powers-that-be never fear real challenge.
One of the remarkable things about watching media members interview politicians these days is just how bad the questions are. The journalist inevitably starts with a softball set up question that allows the candidate to offer some version of their stump speech for an answer. The journalist either follows up with a second softball on the same topic, or moves on. Notably, the more outrageous the candidate’s claim, the more inclined the journalist is to just move on … to not challenge the candidate’s comment.
There are lots of reasons for this—journalists are for the most part generalists, for example, and so usually lack the technical knowledge they would need to challenge the candidate’s comments. This is one of the reasons Newt Gingrich gets away with a lot of the twaddle he spews: the people asking him the question don’t know why his statements are nonsense (e.g., the Palestinians are an “invented” people), and so let him slide.
But I want to suggest another reason why so many journalists’ questions have gotten so lame: the problem of access.
See, for a long time elected leaders and other politicians struggled to get noticed by the media, especially television. They had to subject themselves to rigorous questioning and meaningful dialogue with reporters if they wanted to get access to television and thus an opportunity to promote their agenda. Engagement was the price of access—politicians had to agree to real interaction with the media if they wanted access to that most precious of resources: TV time.
Today, the situation is entirely reversed. Things like internet video streaming, the ubiquity of blog posts, and the emergence of multiple and niche “news” networks desperate to fill programming time in an over-saturated market have worked to create a world in which pretty much anyone can get access to some means to advance their message. There is intense competition for the good “get”: the interview that will draw attention to the media source. In other words, the world of access has been turned upside down: where politicians once clamored for attention, and were willing to face real questions in order to earn their way into the spotlight, now politicians and other leaders are in a position to choose which, if any, outlets in which they wish to advance their message. Leaders choose journalists and networks, not the other way around.
One consequence of this has been the rise of “pet” media. For conservatives, it’s FOX: once FOX is on your side, you know FOX will never ask a serious question or otherwise challenge your use of their network to spin your agenda. MSNBC does something similar with liberal politicians. The price of “winning” an interview is to softball it once you get it. It is the politician setting the tone of the conversation, not the journalist.
And what happens if you transgress? If you are a journalist who gets a good interview but then actually follows up with tough questions, etc? Well, it’s obvious: you lose access. The political leader and all their supporters never go on your show or talk to you or your colleagues again. They withdraw that which is precious—access—and leave you with a void to try to fill with content.
Which you of course are reluctant to face. And your producer or editor is even less more reluctant to face, since they have to pay the unit’s bills. So the message from the top is clear: play along. Otherwise we lose money—and you lose your job.
So we get wussy questions followed by bad answers followed by distractions and irrelevancies. Ironically, increased opportunities to explore the political universe has made it possible for politicians to seemingly be on the air all the time, but never to say anything meaningful.
Which is exactly how they like it.
Today’s installment of how partisanship shapes and reflects judgment, television edition: favorite television shows by party id (not in order of popularity). Politicalprof’s choices are starred. And BBC’s Top Gear rocks. (Not the US version.)
Democrats
The Daily Show*
The Colbert Report*
Masterpiece Theater
30 Rock*
Parks and Recreation*
Saturday Night Live*
The Office*
Modern Family
Cougar Town
Glee
Raising Hope
Shameless (*the UK version is awesome; never watched the US version)
David Letterman
Craig Ferguson
Republicans
This Old House*
700 Club
Swamp Loggers
Mythbusters*
Man v Wild (*occasionally, pre-Baby Prof)
Auction Kings
Swamp People
BBC’s Top Gear*****
The Bachelor
Dancing With the Stars
The Biggest Loser
Hawaii 5-0
NCIS
Jay Leno
From Lisa de Moraes, The Washington Post
Nearly 20 percent of Americans say they’ve had trouble putting food on the table in the past 12 months, up from nine percent in 2008, the Gallup report found. That’s compared to six percent of Chinese respondents, down from 16 percent in 2008.
As a trained social scientist, I can’t even begin to explore the multiple ridiculousnesses of this one.
—The headline says “more” Americans than Chinese. Well, folks, there’s virtually nothing on the planet involving demographics in which Americans have “more” of than China does. This is due to the simple demographic fact that there are 4x more Chinese than there are Americans. Nobel Prizes? Yes: Americans have more. People? No.
—How, exactly, does one do a real public opinion survey in CHINA? Do you randomly call 600,000,000 rural peasants on their cell phones? Wander around doing focus groups in a police state? Herman Cain complained that people were comparing apples to oranges when they criticized his tax plan. This one is apples to quasars. Any claim that ANY percent of Chinese believe thing X is highly suspect.
—Besides, the findings don’t even pass the smell test. There are hundreds of millions—600? 700? 500?—of Chinese people living on tiny wages—$2 a day and less in many cases. People have been displaced in their millions, by earthquakes, dams and official corruption. And we are seriously supposed to believe that MORE Americans are struggling than Chinese people are?
The tale this story tells may serve a political agenda. I may be sympathetic to parts of that agenda. But I went to methods class—a lot of them. And this is just too ridiculous to ignore.
(Source: azspot)
At some level, the only thing that actually matters in modern politics is controlling the narrative in which events are explained. Frame this narrative to your benefit, and the battle is at least half won. Lose the framing war, and you face long odds.
This is easy to see. Is Mitt Romney a soulless flip-flopper, or an experienced, competent leader? Is Rick Perry a gun-toting maniac, or a successful governor of the second largest state? Is Barack Obama a flaccid, empty shell of a radical Islamist (and yes, I know this makes no sense, but neither does the claim), or a pleasant man trying to make things better? Is Michele Bachmann just insane, or … well, actually, I can’t think of a counter-case, there.
This dynamic holds true in policy and other disputes as well. Are the #Occupy people smelly hippies bent on imposing socialism on the US, or representative of the “rest of us” who don’t have massive Wall Street presences? Is the tea party a bunch of hypocritical racists who want to believe “their” America is under assault, or inheritors of the revolutionary spirit of American liberty? Are “pro-choice” people actually “pro-abortion?” Are “pro-life” people really “anti-choice”?
In each case, the narrative shapes subsequent interpretations. This is perhaps most easily seen in the case of Sarah Palin. Assume, for the sake of argument, that Palin’s initial media interviews gone well, rather than badly. (In addition, let’s assume she didn’t fit in Tina Fey’s comedic wheelhouse quite so easily.) Given that Palin was essentially an unknown, those early interviews played a key role in establishing her national persona. For those who dismissed her, they reinforced the sense that she was a naif, unready and indeed willfully resistant to the kinds of experiences and training that might have actually prepared her for the Presidency. For those who like her, those early interviews confirmed the left wing bias of the main stream media, and established the “Sarah-as-martyr” frame that motivates so many of her followers.
So, gentle readers, don’t kid yourselves: words matter. So do the pictures and images that accompany those words. Which is why what is going with #Occupy and with the Republican debates matters far more than is perhaps evident up front: the current argument is about how to frame these events/actors. It’s about what narrative will dominate our thinking about these phenomena.
It’s about shaping what we haven’t even thought about thinking yet.
Pay attention.
The top photo places the rise of Occupy Wall Street coverage on a time line, highlighting key events. The second photo charts the comparative coverage of Occupy Wall Street versus the Tea Party over the first three weeks their protests began.
From: Nate Silver, fivethirtyeight.com
A month ago, Michele Bachmann was the hottest thing since Paris Hilton, and might well be elected president. Now, apparently she’s toast.
At the speed of the modern media cycle, which runs about 6 minutes per meme, I’m thinking we’re roughly 417 candidates away from coming up with a Republican nominee.
In any case, I know this: the media doesn’t get to pick the Republicans’ nominee. Republican voters do. And none of them have a say for another 4 months or so. So maybe, just maybe, it would be nice to do a little less anointing and little more reporting.
That’s not going to happen, of course. But it would be nice to think that it would.
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