January 4, 2012
The Iowa Demographics: An interactive graph

The National Journal has a nice interactive graph of who voted for whom in the Iowa caucus last night. The Tea Party liked Santorum. The young and independents like Paul. Who would have thought it? Just hit the title to link to the report…

h/t: AM

December 21, 2011
Irony, Access and the Decline of Good Political Interviews

One of the remarkable things about watching media members interview politicians these days is just how bad the questions are. The journalist inevitably starts with a softball set up question that allows the candidate to offer some version of their stump speech for an answer. The journalist either follows up with a second softball on the same topic, or moves on. Notably, the more outrageous the candidate’s claim, the more inclined the journalist is to just move on … to not challenge the candidate’s comment.

There are lots of reasons for this—journalists are for the most part generalists, for example, and so usually lack the technical knowledge they would need to challenge the candidate’s comments. This is one of the reasons Newt Gingrich gets away with a lot of the twaddle he spews: the people asking him the question don’t know why his statements are nonsense (e.g., the Palestinians are an “invented” people), and so let him slide.

But I want to suggest another reason why so many journalists’ questions have gotten so lame: the problem of access.

See, for a long time elected leaders and other politicians struggled to get noticed by the media, especially television. They had to subject themselves to rigorous questioning and meaningful dialogue with reporters if they wanted to get access to television and thus an opportunity to promote their agenda. Engagement was the price of access—politicians had to agree to real interaction with the media if they wanted access to that most precious of resources: TV time.

Today, the situation is entirely reversed. Things like internet video streaming, the ubiquity of blog posts, and the emergence of multiple and niche “news” networks desperate to fill programming time in an over-saturated market have worked to create a world in which pretty much anyone can get access to some means to advance their message. There is intense competition for the good “get”: the interview that will draw attention to the media source. In other words, the world of access has been turned upside down: where politicians once clamored for attention, and were willing to face real questions in order to earn their way into the spotlight, now politicians and other leaders are in a position to choose which, if any, outlets in which they wish to advance their message. Leaders choose journalists and networks, not the other way around.

One consequence of this has been the rise of “pet” media. For conservatives, it’s FOX: once FOX is on your side, you know FOX will never ask a serious question or otherwise challenge your use of their network to spin your agenda. MSNBC does something similar with liberal politicians. The price of “winning” an interview is to softball it once you get it. It is the politician setting the tone of the conversation, not the journalist.

And what happens if you transgress? If you are a journalist who gets a good interview but then actually follows up with tough questions, etc? Well, it’s obvious: you lose access. The political leader and all their supporters never go on your show or talk to you or your colleagues again. They withdraw that which is precious—access—and leave you with a void to try to fill with content.

Which you of course are reluctant to face. And your producer or editor is even less more reluctant to face, since they have to pay the unit’s bills. So the message from the top is clear: play along. Otherwise we lose money—and you lose your job.

So we get wussy questions followed by bad answers followed by distractions and irrelevancies. Ironically, increased opportunities to explore the political universe has made it possible for politicians to seemingly be on the air all the time, but never to say anything meaningful.

Which is exactly how they like it.

November 23, 2011
The Devil You Know

So my father just asked me a good question (locations changed to protect the innocent!):

“Is there a group out there or in here which is working to remove as many congressman as possible in the next election?   For the first time in my life I want to become politically active. I, like many others are just fed up, but know people will vote for the name they know.”

I am afraid I had to disappoint him:

“In the sense of, throw everybody out? No. As you wisely point out, name recognition and party id trump pretty much everything else, and unless the Democrats were to nominate quite a candidate in Utopia (or vice versa), the incumbent is virtually assured victory. In a choice among devils, we usually choose the devil we know … “

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: elections are NOT contests between some schlub and some ideal candidate. They are contests between the people who win nominations and are won by those whose supporters show up and vote on election day. Don’t like your choices? The answer is much like the answer to the question, “what should you do if you find someone’s speech offensive?”: offer more and better speech. Recruit and support better candidates. That’s our obligation in a democracy. Just punishing failure won’t get the job done.

(Notably, I did not add that last paragraph in my email home … !) 

October 7, 2011
Improve American democracy: stop electing these positions!

Maybe it’s just me, but I’m pretty certain that governance in the US would be improved if we stopped electing a lot of people at the state and local level we currently elect. Such as:

—judges. Seriously. Do it the US Constitution way with impeachment. You can even term limit them if you need to. But giving $ to judicial campaigns stinks no matter how legal it is.

—Sheriffs: For sure. The moment you make law enforcement a campaign tool, you get political enforcement, not law enforcement.

—States’ attorneys/district attorneys: Ditto.

—Coroners. Really: we elect the coroner here. On what basis? You don’t need any qualifications at all to be a coroner where I live. There’s your CSI for you.

—County clerks; registrars; recorders of deeds: you name it. If people are worried about their elections, the offices are about elections, not service.

No doubt there are lots of other positions—and no, I don’t mean “Congress,” etc.

August 8, 2011
The Permanent Campaign and the Failure to Govern

I want to suggest that March 19, 1979 was the most important, utterly ignored date in recent American political history.

Why is that date important? It’s the day C-SPAN started broadcasting.

This event, which seemed beyond innocuous at its start—after all, who REALLY wants to to watch Congresspeople give speeches all day long?—turned out to be momentous. It launched the era of the permanent campaign that has made actual governance almost impossible in modern America.

C-SPAN didn’t do this all at once, of course, nor did it do it by itself. But it provided a tool by which the permanent campaign could begin.

Here’s how. At first, C-SPAN was every bit as boring a thing as you would imagine it to be. By rule, the camera in the House of Representatives was fixed on the podium in the front of the room from which elected officials could make speeches. Most of these were unexciting and unengaging—indeed, most were made to an empty House while no business was being conducted on the floor. They were love letters home from elected representatives to their districts.

In 1984, however, a group of insurgent Republicans led by Newt Gingrich realized that since the camera was fixed on the front of the House, they could go up and make whatever speech they wanted about whatever topic was on their mind, and no one would be able to see that the House was empty. Moreover, if they seeded the House with a few loud-mouthed members, they could make it sound like the House—which was controlled by the Democrats at the time—was cheering in response to their attacks on the Democrats who ran Congress.

They realized, in other words, that they could use the camera to advance their agenda regardless of the relationships they made or burned with their fellow Congresspeople.

In response, Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill ordered that the cameras be shifted to show that the House was empty when Gingrich and his allies made these speeches. But the principle was set: any moment of publicity would be exploited to advance one’s political agenda.

What C-SPAN wrought, CNN—and later FOX and its doppelganger MSNBC—turned into an art. Political “analysis” became dominated by partisans of one side or the other taking every chance they could to both advance their cause AND undermine their opponents’ cause. Television coverage of politics became dominated by talking heads discussing/yelling/shrieking/accusing with each other about the wonderfulness of their ideas and the despicableness of their opponents’ ideas.

The internet blogosphere has subsequently expanded the number of people engaging in this death spiral of “analysis,” all while offering the protections of anonymity to encourage the utter debasement of political discourse.

The thing is, elected officials know this is the game. They know that everything—and I mean everything—that they say and do will be treated as laudatory or vile in endless commentaries, blogs and fundraising appeals. They know that everything—and I mean everything—is both public and political in the new political world order.

And it has left many of them paralyzed. Some fear running afoul of enemies who have demonstrated themselves to be willing to say anything about anyone to achieve their goals. Others are paralyzed by running afoul of their friends, losing their support after making the kinds of compromises that are normal in ordinary political life.

In either case, the default condition is inaction.

When you think about it from the perspective of the permanent campaign, the debt ceiling “crisis” makes perfect sense. In creating a permanent political campaign, we have weakened our ability to actually govern.

C-SPAN, of course, isn’t really the bad guy of this story.

The bad guy is Americans’ unwillingness to think three inches beyond their nose, and to recognize that “winning” the moment isn’t the same thing as governing the nation. C-SPAN and its spawn are merely vehicles of stupidity.

I just wish they weren’t supercars.

July 20, 2011
On Infamy and Elections

For anyone feeling the need for a real political science geek out, let me recommend a paper by Justin Buchler. You can find it here. Buchler examines the electoral consequences of infamy—being famous for being controversial or, in extreme cases, evil.

Buchler finds that ideologues and party leaders tend to be seen as infamous by some portion of the electorate, as measured by the number of derogatory search suggestions attached to a candidate’s name in a Google search. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Michele Bachmann was the most infamous politician in the survey; Alan Grayson, a recently defeated Democrat was second. Al Franken, the Senator from Minnesota, was the most infamous Senator.

Buchler finds that being infamous both brings a candidate more money, but also brings the candidate’s opponent more money. In general, each marginal dollar raised by a challenger is more important than each marginal dollar raised by an incumbent since the incumbent usually faces the law of diminishing returns, while challengers need to raise their profiles to at least equal that of the incumbent. This appears to translate into votes: controversial incumbents seem not to do as well as they ought to have done, given the demographics and other dimensions of their districts, even if they get reelected.

He also finds that Bachmann is the only politician he searched for which Google’s algorithm offers “batshit crazy” as a pop up search option. Which might turn out to be a problem for her in the long run!

Buchler’s piece is all very political sciency, but interesting and readable. If you’re not comfortable following the science, his narrative is clear.

Who knows? This could be a model by which political science can become relevant again!

H/t: The Monkey Cage

July 7, 2011
Why Politicians Lie

I know, I know: you’re thinking politicians lie as a defect of character. They lie because they’re liars. So why bother to discuss it?

I want to suggest that there’s a different, more persuasive account for why politicians lie: They lie because we make them lie. They lie because when they lie, we reward—meaning vote for—them. And when they don’t lie, we punish them—by voting for the other candidate—who, of course, lied to us.

My point can be made in a single, dramatic example, although I am sure that many will resist. In his Democratic presidential nomination acceptance address in 1984, Walter Mondale famously said: “Let’s tell the truth. It must be done, it must be done. Mr. Reagan will raise taxes, and so will I. He won’t tell you. I just did.”

Walter Mondale went on to lose to Ronald Reagan in the greatest electoral college defeat of all time, 525-13.  After his reelection, Ronald Reagan raised taxes multiple times, including a massive shift in tax burden from corporations to individuals as a consequence of the 1986 tax reform act.

Ronald Reagan is considered an icon, even a saint, by many Americans. Walter Mondale became a political punchline and the symbol of a failed Democratic Party.

I know that many will now be saying, “but this is only one case!” Well, sure. But I only have so much time. So let me offer a shot across the bow for cutting off some lines of attack on my argument: before telling me I’m wrong, name for me a recent US politician who has told the American people something hard and unpleasant and then won office. Especially a presidential candidate.

Elections are not a contest between principled persons who say what they believe regardless of the consequences—at least they’re not for the winning candidates. They are contests for public support in which everything Candidate A says that alienates or offends the voters is a leverage point through which Candidate B can try to gain support. In the end, politicians have a choice: say the things voters want to hear and improve their chances of winning, or risk losing by saying things that might be true but that voters don’t want to hear.

We get the politics we demand. We demand being lied to. So we get lied to. The fault, Cassius told Brutus, lies not in our stars, but in ourselves. The sooner Americans accept this, the better politics they will have.

June 28, 2011
Fact Checking Michele Bachmann

Glenn Kessler at The Washington Post has done a nice job fact checking Michele Bachmann. Not that any of this is a giant surprise, but here you go:
————————
Announcement speech, June 27
  • “Five decades ago in America, we had less debt than we have today. We had $300 billion or less in debt. A gallon of gasoline was 31 cents and owning a home was part of the American dream. Today, that debt stands at over $14 trillion. A gallon of gas is outrageously expensive and unfortunately, too many millions of Americans know what it is to have a home that’s in foreclosure.”

Context matters a lot when you use numbers. In this case, Bachmann creates a false impression by using figures from a half-century ago without adjusting for inflation or other factors. 

So, 31 cents in 1961 actually translates to about $2.25 in today’s dollars. That’s still cheaper than a gallon of gas today — about $3.64 nationwide — but not 10 times cheaper.

There’s a similar problem with Bachmann’s reference to $300 billion in national debt. That sounds puny compared to today’s $14 trillion in debt, but the right way to measure debt is as a percentage of the gross domestic product, which is the broadest measure of the nation’s economy.

According to the historical tables of the White House budget office (table 7.1), $300 billion was 55 percent of GDP in 1961.

 As of June 23, the total debt was $14.34 trillion, according to the Treasury Department debt meter. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product, as of March 31, was $15.02 trillion, according to the Commerce Department. That’s a ratio of 96 percent, which is certainly pretty bad, but again, not as dramatic a difference as Bachmann suggested.

 In both of these cases, Bachmann could have made valid points about gasoline prices and the debt without resorting to using out-of-context figures.

  •  “And we can’t afford four more years of a foreign policy with a president who leads from behind and who doesn’t stand up for our friends like Israel, and who too often fails to stand against our enemies.”

Bachmann barely touched on foreign policy in her speech, and she does not really explain her comment on Israel. Bachmann has mischaracterized Obama’s position on Israel in the past. Obama has certainly had tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu over the strategy for peace talks with the Palestinians, but at the same time both countries say security and military ties have never been closer.

  •  “In February 2009, President Obama was very confident that his economic policies would turn the country around within a year. He said, and I quote, ‘A year from now, I think people are going to see that we’re starting to make some progress. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.’ Well, Mr. President, your policies haven’t worked. Spending our way out of the recession hasn’t worked. And so Mr. President, we take you at your word.”

This quote is from an interview that President Obama had with NBC News about two weeks after taking office. But Bachmann leaves out a few crucial words that undercut her claim that he was “very confident” that his policies would turn around the country “within a year.”

Here’s is Obama’s full statement, with the missing words in bold: “A year from now, I think people are going to see that we’re starting to make some progress, but there is still going to be some pain out there. If I don’t have this done in three years, then there’s going to be a one-term proposition.”

Bachmann on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” June 26
  • “No, I haven’t misled people at all. I think the question would be asked of President Obama, when you told the American people that, if we borrow $1 trillion from other countries and spend it on a stimulus, that we won’t have unemployment go above 8 percent, and today, as we are sitting here, it’s 9.1 percent and the economy is tanking — that is what’s serious. That’s a very serious statement that the president made.”

Host Bob Schieffer challenged Bachmann’s history of misstatements in the past — citing, alas, our friends at Politifact — and strangely enough, she responded with yet another misleading statement.

The president never made any statement  suggesting that the stimulus legislation — which totaled about $800 billion, not $1 trillion — would prevent unemployment from going up beyond 8 percent. Bachmann is referring to a projection issued Jan. 9, 2009 — before Obama even took the oath of office — by two aides: Christina Romer, the nominee to head the Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, an incoming economic adviser to Vice President-elect Biden.

The 14-page report thus was not an official government assessment, nor even an analysis of an actual plan that had passed Congress. Instead, it was an attempt to assess the impact of a possible $775 billion stimulus package and what difference it would make compared to doing nothing. The president-elect had articulated a goal of passing a plan that would “save or create 3 million jobs by the end of 2010.”

Page 5 of the report included a chart that showed that unemployment would peak at 8 percent in 2009, compared to 9 percent in 2010 if nothing was done. But the report also contained numerous caveats and warnings because, after all, it was merely a projection. At the time, other economists had similar forecasts — Romer and Bernstein were in the mid-range — but the economy turned out to be in deeper trouble than most people thought.

 In any case, Obama never said that.

  • “It’s ironic and sad that the president released all of the oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve because the president doesn’t have an energy policy.”

This is a huge overstatement. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve has 727 million barrels of oil, and the Obama administration announced last week that the U.S. will release 30 million barrels of oil from the reserve. (Another 30 million barrels will be released by European countries.)

So she’s off by a factor of 25.

  • “Under Barack Obama the last two years, the number of federal limousines for bureaucrats has increased 73 percent in two years.”

 This assertion elicited a chuckle from Schieffer, who questioned whether this really amounts to much money. Bachmann’s statistic comes from a report by iwatch news, a Web site from the Center on Public Integrity, but the full article provides a lot of context missing from Bachmann’s statement.

For instance, much of the increase came in Obama’s first eight months in office, so the purchases could have reflected requests made by the Bush administration.

Another problem is that the General Services Administration says the numbers are not reliable because the term “limousine” is not defined and so it could include protective duty vehicles- — not fancy cars to ferry what Bachmann called “bureaucrats.”

 Bachmann on “Fox News Sunday,” June 26

  • “What I want to do is to make sure that that we fully repeal ‘Obamacare.’ This will be one of the largest spending initiatives we will ever see in our country, and also it will take away choice from the American people. It will hurt senior citizens, because Obama took away $500 billion, as you say, from Medicare and will transfer it to younger people in ‘Obamacare.’ ”

Host Chris Wallace, who later apologized for suggesting that Bachmann was “a flake,” tried to engage Bachmann on the question of how she could complain about cuts in anticipated growth of Medicare spending in the new health care law when the new House Republican budget largely adopts those very same cuts, but she kept dodging his question.

We have examined this issue before, giving Bachmann two Pinocchios for suggesting seniors who suffer at the hands of the youth. As we wrote: “It’s rather rich for Republicans to complain about $500 billion in supposed cuts to Medicare that they themselves would retain, even under the cover of helping Medicare.”

  • “But even worse, the Congressional Budget Office is saying that we will lose 800,000 jobs with ‘Obamacare’. When we’re in a situation now, where we have massive job loss, this is not what we want to do with ‘Obamacare.’ ”

Bachmann once again repeated this 800,000 job claim, another issue we have repeatedly tried to clarify. However, she does better than she did in the recent GOP debate, when she said the health care law would “kill 800,00 jobs.” This time, she said, the economy would “lose 800,000,” which is technically correct but is not necessarily a bad thing.

The Congressional Budget Office last August estimated that the new health care law over the next decade would reduce the number of overall workers in the United States by one-half of one percent. The CBO did not use a number, but that estimate effectively translates into 800,000 people.

(Note: Bachmann’s use of the word “massive” to describe a figure that is just one-half of one percent is a bit absurd.)

 In dry economic language, the CBO essentially said that some people who are now in the workforce because they need health insurance would decide to stop working because the health care law guaranteed they would have access to health care. (As an example, think of someone who is 63, a couple of years before retirement, who is still in a job only because he or she is waiting to get on Medicare at age 65.)

These jobs would disappear, not to be replaced, so there is an intellectually defensible argument that one could make that this is bad for the economy; others, however, might argue that this is a small price worth paying for universal health care. 

We realize that this is difficult concept for non-economists to grasp. Many readers have written wondering why new, younger workers would not fill those jobs, but the CBO maintains that the number of overall jobs in the United States would shrink. In any case, politicians shouldn’t be tossing around this figure — this is really a rather vague prediction of something that might happen in the future.

May 16, 2011
About all you need to know about the Republican caucuses and primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire summarized in a single graphic. Social conservatives do well in Iowa, but then have to hold on through New Hampshire to get to South Carolina. For business conservatives, they have to get through Iowa in position to emerge in New Hampshire, and then wait for the “mainstream” states later in the election cycle.
From Nate Silver at 538.com, behind the NY Times’ pay wall.

About all you need to know about the Republican caucuses and primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire summarized in a single graphic. Social conservatives do well in Iowa, but then have to hold on through New Hampshire to get to South Carolina. For business conservatives, they have to get through Iowa in position to emerge in New Hampshire, and then wait for the “mainstream” states later in the election cycle.

From Nate Silver at 538.com, behind the NY Times’ pay wall.

April 23, 2011
A useful summary of possible Republican presidential candidates by popularity/poll. Notably, the Republican  leading in the polls in the Spring of the year before a presidential election tends to win the party’s nomination. I have a feeling that will not be true this time.
From Charles Blow, The New York Times, April 23, 2011

A useful summary of possible Republican presidential candidates by popularity/poll. Notably, the Republican  leading in the polls in the Spring of the year before a presidential election tends to win the party’s nomination. I have a feeling that will not be true this time.

From Charles Blow, The New York Times, April 23, 2011

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