The Republicans' Immigration Problem

November 25, 2011

The Republicans have an immigration problem.

Actually, they have two.

The first of their problems is demographic. If you accept the census data—and there are in fact reasons not to, especially the notion that people only have single racial and ethnic identities—persons of Hispanic/Latino/a heritage are now the largest “minority” in the United States. There are more such people in the US today than African Americans.

As a practical matter, this means that Hispanic and similar persons are going to play an increasing role in American politics and life in the next 50+ years. Today, their influence is limited by the number who do not have the right to vote, but that will change in time.

As the proportion of such voters increases, it follows that the proportion of “white” voters will go down. Accordingly, building a party based on harsh treatment of “illegals,” as the Republicans seem to be doing, will be increasingly problematic over time. It simply isn’t good politics, at least not in the long term, to build your brand identity on making sure “they” don’t get power when “they” are the largest and fastest-growing proportion of your population.

The second problem is policy. As Republicans spew their “we have to get the illegals out” rhetoric, I am always struck by the profound incongruence between their claims to love small government and their fevered fantasies of rounding up 11,000,000 people (or so) and ejecting them from the country. Just how big do you presume the police state would have to be to arrest 11,000,000 people? Many of whom have been in the US for decades, and, assuming we don’t throw out the children of “illegals” who were nonetheless born in the US, may well have only ever known the US as their home? How much money will we want to spend to house and clothe and feed them as their immigration status is determined—especially for those who will have grown up in the US and have American accents, values, and ways of living? How many IRS agents will have to inspect how many business records? How many cops will spend their time checking immigration papers rather than patrolling for crimes against persons and property? Just how big do these people want the state to be?

So don’t kid yourself. No one—Republican or Democrat alike—is actually ever going to “solve” America’s immigration concerns with a police force. We’ll never pay for it. The question is: do you wish to embrace a powerful and growing force in the United States, seeking to bond them to your electoral coalition, or do you wish to alienate that group, hamstringing your own likely future success as a party?

Republicans have chosen the latter course. They will pay the price.

9:39am | URL: http://tmblr.co/ZPUuPyCOo6Kr

(Notes: 80)